There’s an old saying in baseball that teams are never as good as they look during a winning streak, and never as bad as they appear during a string of losses.
The Blue Jays would be wise to keep that in mind during their current surge through the standings. But few could blame them for ignoring those words and living in the moment, because right now they’re the hottest team in the majors.
The Jays aren’t just winning. They’re steamrolling opponents. Manager John Schneider’s squad has won 12 of its last 14 games and each of the last five series. Dating back to May 8, no team has a better record than ɫɫÀ²’s 22-10.
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The hot streak continued on Wednesday afternoon in St. Louis, where infielder Ernie Clement homered and finished a triple shy of the cycle in a 5-2 victory over the Cardinals. Alejandro Kirk also chipped in with multiple hits for the third consecutive day to help the Jays complete the sweep.
The sustained success is even more impressive when you consider the competition. Since May 20, the Jays have earned series victories over the San Diego Padres, Philadelphia Phillies, Minnesota Twins and Cardinals, all of whom have visions of the playoffs. The only bad teams during that slate were the Athletics and, to a lesser extent, the Texas Rangers.
That should provide optimism that the current run is sustainable for a bit longer, because the schedule leading into next month’s all-star break is, by comparison, much easier. After this weekend’s three road games against the Phillies, all but two of the next eight series will be against teams at or below .500.
The Jays might have been a wild-card team in 2023, but they haven’t looked this good since at least 2022. From May 8, only the Los Angeles Dodgers have scored more. And while other clubs have pitched better, the Jays rank 12th over that span with a respectable 3.74 ERA.
In some ways, the recent success is difficult to fathom. The first month and a half was defined by two steps forward and two steps back. Their longest win streak, five games, was matched by their longest losing streak. They consistently hung around .500 and appeared to be the definition of an average ball club.
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Then, something clicked. The emergence of Addison Barger coincided with an uptick in home runs throughout the lineup. Lefties Brendon Little and Mason Fluharty dominated out of the bullpen, and Eric Lauer proved competent in his new-found role of back-end starter. The red-hot Kirk became the team’s MVP. Before the recent streak, the Jays had a 22.6 per cent chance of making the playoffs, . By Wednesday, it had increased to 63.6.
As pointed out in this space earlier in the week, the Jays are winning with standout contributions from different players just about every day. On Wednesday, it was the versatile Clement who stepped into the spotlight.
Clement led off the second inning with a double. In the third, he hit a sharp single up the middle, and in the fourth he sent a fastball from Matthew Liberatore over the wall in left for his fourth homer of the season. The only thing that slowed Clement down was an apparent left leg injury that forced him out after eight innings, but it’s not expected to be severe.
On the mound, Lauer continued to make a case for a permanent spot in the rotation. He allowed two runs on a walk and four hits across 4 1/3 innings. He threw 72 pitches and struck out four, and his ERA sits at 2.37.
Despite a successful run that dates back to the end of April, Wednesday marked just the third start of the season for Lauer and his first since May 23. He has spent most of the year pitching in a bulk role, but deserves a shot at a full-time starting job following the prolonged struggles of Bowden Francis.
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When veteran right-hander Max Scherzer went down with an injury at the end of March, the Jays figured to be hard-pressed to replace him. That hasn’t been the case. Multiple pitchers, including Lauer, have performed much better than expected. The Jays have gone 9-4 in games that would have been started by Scherzer, compared to 4-9 in Francis starts.
The impressive stretch that has lasted over a month makes the Jays seem almost unstoppable. It wasn’t long ago that whenever the opponent scored first, the game was essentially over because of a struggling lineup. That’s not the case anymore. The Jays lead the American League with . When they score first, the record is 20-8.
The Jays are winning in a variety of ways, and yeah, they’re not going to play this well forever. But save the long-term concerns for another day, because right now there might not be a better feeling in the world than putting on the navy blue. They may as well enjoy this for however long it lasts.
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