In the end, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and the Blue Jays determined they had a lot to gain by sticking together. Or, put another way, neither side was willing to assume the risk of a potential separation.
Guerrero and the Jays brought an end to months of endless speculation in the wee hours of Monday morning by agreeing to a historic 14-year contract worth $500 million (U.S.). The deal was first reported by the Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal and has since been confirmed by the Star.
A son of Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero, the Blue Jays star turned 26 last month and would have been a free agent this fall at a relatively young
A son of Hall of Famer Vladimir Guerrero, the Blue Jays star turned 26 last month and would have been a free agent this fall at a relatively young
The extension through the 2039 season doesn’t include any deferrals and, once officially announced, will become the second-largest contract by net present day value in Major League Baseball history. It trails the $765 million that Juan Soto received from the New York Mets and ranks above the valued $460 million of Shohei Ohtani’s agreement with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Guerrero stated during the off-season that if a deal wasn’t done by the start of spring training he intended to test free agency at the end of the year. After talks failed to result in a new deal, that proved to be a bluff as reports about negotiations continued throughout camp. Guerrero’s agent also made a trip to É«É«À² on the recent homestand for more dialogue.
If Guerrero went unsigned and came through with a big 2025, the bidding projected to be intense in the fall. American League East rivals the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees figured to be in play. The New York Mets and billionaire owner Steve Cohen might have been too. There would have been interest from teams like the Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Angels.
Guerrero wouldn’t have approached Soto’s deal, but the two-time silver slugger could have got closer with some additional gaudy numbers than he did by signing now. Then again, if Guerrero struggled, there was a chance the Jays offer would have disappeared and he would have been paid a whole lot less.
The season is only 10 games old and yet it’s notable that Guerrero hasn’t homered. If he continued without a deal, every move, every slump would have been scrutinized even more and any regression would have been held against him. Contrary to what Guerrero previously said, his floor wasn’t $500 million, it was significantly below.
Guerrero played it safe by dropping his rumoured asking price of $575-600 million. He opted for the security of a deal that will pay him through his age-40 season. Guerrero said many times before that he didn’t want to play for any other team, now he gets to prove it by signing a lifetime contract.
If the Jays continued on without Guerrero signed to an extension they would have been become fully exposed. Letting him walk alongside Bo Bichette would have forced the franchise into a rebuild, which would have set the Jays back at least five years at a time they’re trying to sell premium seating.
Of course, there’s danger in signing him too. As a first baseman, Guerrero offers limited defensive value. As he moves into his 30s, Guerrero might give up his glove entirely and become a designated hitter. Even with him on the roster, the Jays are coming off a season in which they missed the playoffs. The 5-5 Jays just got swept by the Mets while scoring three runs.
The back end of this contract isn’t going to be pretty either. The annual breakdown is not yet known but the deal will come with an average annual salary of approximately $35.7 million until he’s 40, which is five years older than José Bautista was when he stopped being José Bautista.
Guerrero needs to do more than hit to justify this deal, he has to become a perennial MVP candidate and help the Jays contend. To date, he’s had two seasons that reached such heights and three that fell short of personal expectations. His lifetime average of .287 with an .861 on-base plus slugging percentage is good, but for that price tag it will need to be even better.
While president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins might have been in charge of the negotiations, this deal doesn’t get done without owner Edward Rogers. Shapiro’s contract expires later this year, Atkins follows in 2026, even if both somehow re-upped they won’t be around to see this contract through to the end.
Rogers Communications will be, though. At least, that’s the idea. And the corporate giant isn’t handing Guerrero half a billion dollars on a whim. It’s part of a plan that has seen the arrival of record-high payrolls, a renovated stadium and a state-of-the-art player development complex. Signing Guerrero is just the latest sign Rogers isn’t messing around in its desire to become a professional sports super power.
From a business standpoint, the Jays cost themselves a lot of money by not signing Guerrero a few years ago when his price tag would have been much cheaper. Losing him for almost nothing this off-season, however, would have only made that decision worse. At least this way, Guerrero gets his money and the Jays get to keep the player they hope becomes an all-time great.
Some people, flaws and all, are just better together than they are apart. For better or worse, Guerrero and the Jays appear to qualify.
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