Donald Trump’s latest tariff threat might not have as much impact on Canada as first feared — but no-one’s breathing easy just yet.
Trump said in a letter to Prime Minister Mark Carney Thursday that Canadian imports would face a 35-per-cent tariff as of Aug. 1 if no trade agreement is reached. Carney had initially been hoping for a deal by July 21.
A White House official later clarified that the new tariff would only apply to goods that already face a 25-per-cent rate. That means goods that comply with the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement would avoid the levy, as would energy and potash imports, which face a 10-per-cent rate.
The official also said no final policy paper has been drafted and Trump has not yet made a final decision.
A Canadian government official told the Star it was still unclear which goods the 35 per cent tariff rate would apply to, despite U.S. media reports, citing Trump officials, suggesting it would only apply to the few goods not exempt under CUSMA and already hit with a 25-per-cent tariff.
That lack of clarity is precisely the point of Trump’s latest threat, said international trade lawyer John Boscariol.
“I think the goal here is more bluster and chaos on the Trump side during the negotiation process,” said Boscariol, head of the trade law group at McCarthy Tetrault. “By now, we’re starting to recognize a pattern where these missiles are sent during discussions and there’s an immediate reaction.”
Trump’s goal is to create leverage for his negotiators, Boscariol added.
“He announces something. It’s not clear exactly how it applies or what it applies to. He lets it hang out there for a while,” said Boscariol. “I think Canadian negotiators should keep their heads down and ignore the noise.”
It’s also clear, based on Trump’s letters to other countries this week, that he hopes to use trade negotiations to extract non-trade goals, said Boscariol, pointing to the Trump’s letter to current Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, which blasted criminal charges against Lula’s predecessor and Trump ally Jair Bolsonaro.
That makes it harder, said Boscariol, for negotiators to find a coherent way to approach negotiations when the goals aren’t precisely clear. Seeing the leader of the world’s largest economy use trade talks as a goal to extract non-trade concessions is a new, chaotic path, Boscariol said.
“This just seems to be pure chaos. It seems to change depending on what his interests might be. Sometimes it’s trade-related, sometimes it’s something else. I think this is unprecedented,” said Boscariol.
In the case of Canada, Trump accused Ottawa in his letter to Carney of failing to prevent fentanyl from crossing the border, saying he would “consider an adjustment” to his tariffs if Canada works with him on the issue. That’s despite Canada being a of the fentanyl going into the U.S., data has shown, and the Canadian government proposing increased powers to law enforcement and putting more than $1 billion in part to tackle the issue.
William Pellerin, an international trade lawyer at McMillan LLP, said it appears Trump is looking for further concessions on Canada’s supply management system, even though the Carney government has said it is off the table in negotiations.
“If the tariffs go in place and the Canadian auto industry and steel industry begin massive layoffs, for example, and the tariff situation is not getting better, then maybe that changes the equation,” Pellerin told the Star.
But putting too much emphasis on whether or not CUSMA exemptions will apply could also wind up backfiring, said Matthew Holmes, public policy chief at the Canadian Chamber of Commerce.
“I don’t think it helps Canada in any way to assume that CUSMA will protect us. There’s nothing in this process that I trust at all. It’s a risk,” said Holmes.
Trump’s letter to Carney makes it clear the U.S. president is aiming for maximum chaos and leverage, Holmes said.
“The 35 per cent is there unless it’s not there. Or maybe if he decides we’re doing something on fentanyl,” said Holmes. “Like everything throughout this whole process, it’s arbitrary and subject to the whims of one man. The only thing of substance in this letter is that it pushed out the deadline to Aug. 1 instead of July 21.”
The head of Canada’s largest private sector union blasted the 35-per-cent tariff threat.
“There’s only one answer to this extortion from the U.S. president: push back — hard,” Unifor national president Lana Payne said in a written statement. “Canada must use every bit of leverage we have. Workers are counting on our government to defend their jobs and industries. Concessions won’t stop a bully, but collective strength will.”
Payne said Trump’s latest threat is just more of the same behavior Canada has already seen from its southern neighbour.
“Trump’s playbook is clear, implement and threaten sky-high tariffs to condition us into accepting a lower baseline tariff as the new normal. We must never fall for it,” said Payne. “That’s not negotiation — that’s coercion. We will not settle for a future where Canadian jobs are held hostage to the U.S.”
Speaking to reporters outside the White House on Friday, Trump said he had a conversation with Canadian officials on Thursday but offered no new details.
“We’re gonna see. It was sent yesterday. They called. I think it was fairly well-received,” he said. “So, we’ll see what happens.”
Carney’s office said in a statement Friday that the PM will be convening his cabinet for a meeting Tuesday to discuss the negotiations between the two countries ahead of the revised Aug. 1 deadline.
The prime minister will also be holding a meeting with all premiers on July 22, his office said.
Foreign Affairs Minister Anita Anand told reporters in a media call-back from Malaysia on Thursday she was set to meet U.S. secretary of state Marco Rubio on Friday. But a scheduling conflict has cancelled that meeting, her office told the Star.
Canada also faces additional U.S. tariffs on steel, aluminum and automobiles, as well as a U.S. plan to introduce tariffs on copper on Aug. 1.
At Queen’s Park, Premier Doug Ford’s office said Trump’s latest threatened escalation puts more pressure on Ottawa.
“Now more than ever, we need the federal government to work around the clock to secure a deal that is right for Canada and eliminates all American tariffs,” Ford’s office said Friday.
With files from Robert Benzie and Star wires
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