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“That’s a big hit to a system that’s already in significant distress,” Rob Kristofferson, president of the confederation that represents professors and academic librarians, said of the tuition shortfall for the cohort that comes amid ongoing funding pressuresÌýin the post-secondary sector.

“On one hand, you have this unprecedented domestic demand. It’s a positive sign for Ontario students, but it also places significant strain on university resources,” addedÌýKristofferson, a professor at Wilfrid Laurier University.

More than 84,000 Ontario students confirmed they’ll start attending university here this fall, which is an increase of about 5,100 over last year, preliminary confirmation figures released by the Ontario Universities’ Application Centre show.

That represents about $43 million in additional tuition revenue, based on an average of $8,500 per student, Kristofferson said.

But when the drop in foreign students is factored in — they comprise most of the “all other applicants” category — their average $48,000 in yearly fees means $124 million in lost revenue for schools, leading to the $81-million gap.

Post-secondary schools were already raising concerns about a cash crunch on a number of fronts, including federal changes that slashed foreign student enrolment, an ongoing tuition freeze imposed by the Ford government and public funding levels that they say have not kept up with actual costs.

The Ontario government has injected more than $2 billion into the system over the past 18 months, and is holding consultations this summer on how best to revamp funding.

While wanting to ensure the programs offered align with employer needs, Colleges and Universities Minister Nolan Quinn said in an earlier memo that he wants to provide “fair, predictable and transparent” funding while also asking schools to operate efficiently.Ìý

“In the last five months, our government has invested nearly a billion dollars into our colleges and universities to fund over 100,000 more seats in programs that produce graduates to meet Ontario’s labour market demands,” said Quinn’s press secretary Bianca Giacoboni.

“This is new funding on top of the $1.3 billion we invested into the sector last year — the biggest funding increase in over a decade — and in addition to the $5 billion in operating funding we put into the sector every year so our colleges and universities can continue to deliver for our students.”

The faculty confederation says with provincial funding among the lowest in the country, the system needs an immediate $2.78 billion boost just to reach the national average.Ìý

The province’s own blue ribbon expert panel had urged an immediate five per cent increase in tuition and 10 per cent boost in funding grants, which universities have been urging the government to implement.Ìý

At Huron University, which is affiliated with Western University, students pay about $7,500 in tuition, while foreign students pay $60,000 a year to study business.

President Barry Craig said the school is likely to break even or better this year given the jump in domestic enrolment, and it bucked the trend on international student registrations with an almost 20 per cent increase.

The Ontario-student numbers are “off the charts … it’s been three years that we’ve seen this kind of momentum, but this year is the largest yet,” he said.

Craig, who spoke with the Star from India where he is promoting his school, said the sentiment there is that Canada is now a tough place to obtain a study visa, so families are focusing on other countries.

However, in light of increasing restrictions and rhetoric in the U.S. towards international students, he said they might start to again consider Canada.

The loss of just a dozen international students means almost a million dollar drop in yearly revenues for a school, he noted.

Western University, Trent University, the University of Ottawa and OCAD University, among others, saw double-digit drops in international student registrations for this fall in the June confirmation statistics. Final enrolment figures will be available later in the fall.Ìý

A spokesperson for Western, where in-province confirmations jumped 31 per cent, said the school is pleased with the “strong interest from prospective students, both domestic and international” and that it plans to keep enrolment around the same size as in previous years.

Queen’s University said in a statement that its confirmation numbers remain steady for Ontario, Canadian and international students. It said Queen’s is “committed to building a globally engaged, diverse campus community,” and has begun offering extra assistance to students in other countries given all the federal changes.

Overall, the province’s universities expect to lose about $900 million in foreign tuition in total between 2024-25 and the coming school year.

Freshman year enrolment in Ontario over the past few years has surpassed records set in the 2003 double cohort year, when Grade 13 was eliminated and two classes of graduating students competed for spots in post-secondary schools.Ìý

Many schools have seen double-digit increases in Ontario student registrations, including Laurentian University, which just four years ago sought creditor protectionÌýto resolve its dire financial situation.

It also has a slight uptick in international student enrolment, although it is still down from the highs of previous years.

Provost Malcolm Campbell said Laurentian has focused on a “superior student experience” following the challenging times, and has seen improved retention rates for all categories of students.

“It tells us that once our students are here, they’re interested in staying here,” he added.

Ontario’s colleges and universities have been cutting programs and laying off staff or freezing hiring, and almost half have been running deficits.Ìý

Kristofferson acknowledged the recent government funding announcements, but said more needs to be done.

“The gap that exists between what they’re actually providing and these short-term solutions and what’s needed to fund the system overall, it’s massive,” he said.