Bo Bichette’s disappointing season from a year ago is little more than a distant memory. It has proven to be the outlier, not the new norm, and his resurgence at the plate is about to make him a very rich man.
The Blue Jays took care of their biggest pending free agent earlier this spring by signing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to a franchise-record $500 million (U.S.) contract. They declined to try a similar approach with Bichette and if he decides to return, it’s going to cost the Jays a lot more money than it would have before.
Bichette was already enjoying a bounce-back season before the all-star break. Since then, he has taken it to another level by hitting .382 with four home runs, nine doubles and 25 RBIs over his last 21 games. With each big hit, the asking price this winter is bound to increase even more.
The impressive run for Bichette continued Wednesday afternoon as he homered and doubled in the Jays’ 20-1 demolition of the Colorado Rockies. That brought an end to the bloodbath that saw the Jays set a franchise record by scoring 45 runs in a three-game series against the worst team in Major League Baseball.
There are eight shortstops who have an average annual salary above $25 million (U.S.), nine if you count Mookie Betts, who initially signed a 12-year deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers as an outfielder. At this point, Bichette seems like a lock to become the 10th member of that club.
Bichette, who went deep three times this week in Colorado, finished the series sweep with a season average of .301 and an .815 on-base plus slugging percentage. He’s the MLB leader with 145 hits and there are only four qualified hitters in the American League with a higher batting average. He’s going to get paid this winter, the question is how much and by which team.
Entering Wednesday, Bichette had compiled 20.2 wins above replacement in his career. That’s comparable to the 20.9 that Corey Seager produced in Los Angeles before he signed a 10-year contract with the Texas Rangers worth $325 million. It’s also significantly better than the 14.9 WAR that Dansby Swanson compiled before signing a seven-year deal worth $177 million with the Chicago Cubs.
Seager’s contract was more about projections than past production. The five-time all-star frequently dealt with injuries during his time in Los Angeles and he only surpassed 100 games in three of his final six years with the club. The Rangers gambled he would fare better in Texas and while that bet paid off from 2022-24, Seager has been limited to 82 games so far in 2025.
The more accurate comparison might be Willy Adames, who inked a seven-year contract worth $182 million with the San Francisco Giants last winter. Prior to that deal, Adames had a career WAR of 21.4, which is approximately where Bichette could find himself at the end of 2025. As salaries continue to escalate across the game, that contract would appear to be the floor for Bichette, who will hit free agency one year younger than Adames.
Beyond last year’s flop and the unpredictability that came with it, the only thing that might suppress Bichette’s value is his defence. The 27-year-old ranks 30th among shortstops with -6 outs above average this season. Bichette makes most of the routine plays but his range is limited and he’ll likely be required to switch positions at some point during his next contract.
Bichette's not alone in that regard. Carlos Correa recently agreed to play third base for the Houston Astros and he still has more than three years remaining on his $200-million contract. Xander Bogaerts is back at shortstop this season for the San Diego Padres, but he spent most of last year at second and he's signed through 2033 on a $280-million deal.
No matter what happens over the final seven weeks, Bichette doesn’t figure to crack the $300-million mark that Francisco Lindor, Trea Turner and Seager all received. But he’s likely to get more than Swanson and Adames, so eight years and $200 million should be within reach. If a bidding war starts, it could soar even higher.
One might assume that’s more than the Jays can stomach after they agreed to pay Guerrero an average of $35.7 million per year through 2039. Then again, perhaps it won’t as the Jays are backed by a rich ownership group in Rogers Communications and they only have five players under guaranteed contracts beyond 2027.
The resources are there, the lone uncertainty is whether the current front office wants to use them on Bichette. Last year, he seemed as good as gone. This season, his improved play has coincided with the Jays’ remarkable run through the AL East. They’re better off together than they are apart and at some point this winter we’ll find out whether both parties feel the same way.
The top 10 shortstop contracts in MLB:
1 — Mookie Betts, $365 million (signed as an outfielder)
2 — Francisco Lindor, $341 million
3 — Corey Seager, $325 million
4 — Trea Turner, $300 million
5 — Bobby Witt Jr., $289 million
6 — Xander Bogaerts, $280 million
7 — Willy Adames, $182 million
7 — Wander Franco, $182 million (on MLB’s restricted list)
9 — Dansby Swanson, $177 million
10 — Trevor Story, $140 million
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