Will Wagner’s first stint in the majors has been cut short because of injury but it lasted long enough for the 26-year-old to stake his claim for the Blue Jays’ starting job at second base.
Wagner was placed on the 60-day injured list Tuesday with left knee inflammation. The following day, Jays manager John Schneider told reporters Wagner had a scope performed and would be sidelined for a month. He is expected to make a full recovery by next spring.
Barring any setbacks, Wagner should enter camp as the favourite to be the everyday man at second. There will be competition, but the role is Wagner’s to lose following an impressive 24-game run.
His first season officially comes to an end with a .305 average, eight extra-base hits, 11 RBIs and a .788 on-base percentage. While the sample size is small, Wagner had ample time to showcase the upside of his bat, and he also proved capable with the glove.
The overall numbers are impressive, but additional context is required. Wagner caught fire upon arriving in É«É«À², hitting .385 with a 1.023 OPS in his first 15 games. The performance dipped in September to .192 with a .442 OPS.
Wagner also got a bit lucky during his initial run. His batting average on balls in play was .359, which was the highest of anyone on the Jays with at least 75 plate appearances. That’s significantly above the league average of .284 and suggests there will be regression.
But Wagner’s performance shouldn’t be dismissed as a fluke. He trails only Vladimir Guerrero Jr. for the highest average exit velocity among the Jays. Ditto for a 50 per cent hard-hit contact rate, which is second to Guerrero’s 55.8. The harder a player hits the ball, the more likely it is to find holes and generate more hits.
There’s undeniable risk in committing regular at-bats to a player who has appeared in just 24 games. As the scouting report gets out, opposing pitchers will start making adjustments to how they approach him. Wagner will have to make counter adjustments and, until he proves capable, there’s no guarantee of long-term success.
But second base is one spot where the Jays can afford to gamble. The Jays have more organizational depth at second than at any other position, which should help them avoid having to make any off-season additions.
They have the capable Leo Jimenez, who entered Wednesday night’s game against the Rangers with 14 extra-base hits and a .710 OPS. They also have utility infielder Ernie Clement and infielder/outfielder Davis Schneider. Worst-case scenario, they could transition Spencer Horwitz back to the position while prioritizing offence over defence.
With second base crossed off their off-season to-do list, the Jays can prioritize adding power bats to third base, left field and possibly designated hitter while also overhauling one of the league’s worst bullpens. Having a starting second baseman earn the league minimum will increase the money available for other spots.
That’s what this entire audition process has been about since the Jays sold off their pending free agents at the deadline. That included acquiring Wagner as part of the deal for left-hander Yusei Kikuchi. The goal of the front office was to take stock of its inventory before deciding which pieces were worth keeping and which ones needed to be replaced.
The reviews elsewhere have been mixed. Bowden Francis has emerged as a potentially viable starting pitcher. Outfielder Joey Loperfido has flashed upside but is batting just .223 with a well-below average .649 OPS in 34 games. Infielder/outfielder Addison Barger has plenty of power but lacks consistency, with a .211 average and .636 OPS. The bullpen remains a disaster.
The Jays haven’t experienced quite as many positive developments after the trade deadline as once hoped, but second base qualifies because Wagner has the potential to become a left-handed hitting version of Devon Travis: a guy who plays adequate enough defence with an above-average hit tool that fits well in the bottom half of a competent big-league offence.
There’s a lot of value in being able to pencil an internal candidate into a position that previously looked like it would be an area of need for a team that wants to contend.
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