A new opinion poll suggests Mayor Olivia Chow would be the leading contender if she was seeking re-election now — but former mayor John Tory would be a real threat if he was attempting a political comeback.
Forum Research surveyed 1,000 adults across É«É«À² on Wednesday and Thursday, asking about their support for four potential candidates well ahead of the October 2026 mayoral race that already has local politicos planning and gauging support.
Asked “If the mayoral election were held today, who would you vote for?” — and, if undecided, who they were leaning toward — 36 per cent chose Chow, followed by 30 per cent for Tory, 18 per cent for Beaches-East York Coun. Brad Bradford and eight per cent for former city councillor Ana Bailão. Thirteen per cent of respondents were undecided.
Chow, 68, elected in a June 2023 byelection to replace Tory, is widely expected to seek re-election but has not announced her intentions.
Tory, 71, has not made an announcement either but multiple sources have told the Star that he is strongly considering a comeback attempt. The former Rogers chief executive was elected mayor three times but resigned in February 2023Â after the Star revealed his relationship with a woman 38 years his junior that started when she worked in the married mayor’s office.
The illicit relationship continued after she left city hall to work for Maple Leaf Sports & Entertainment that hired her, upon Tory’s recommendation, to deal with city hall on matters involving World Cup games to be played in É«É«À² next year. The city’s integrity commissioner ruled that Tory broke two articles in city council’s code of conduct.Ìý
The margin of error for the interactive voice response telephone survey, conducted over a mix of cellular and land lines, is plus or minus four percentage points 19 times out of 20.
While it’s unlikely É«É«À²’s mayoral race will come down to two prominent contenders — the 2023 byelection featured several well-known candidates — Forum asked respondents to choose in one-on-one matchups and, in that scenario, Chow fared much worse.
In a head-to-head with Tory, the former mayor got 48 per cent support to Chow’s 37 per cent, with 15 per cent undecided.
In a head-to-head with Bradford, who finished a distant eighth in the last mayoral race, it was a virtual tie at 42 per cent support for him, 40 per cent support for her and 18 per cent undecided.Ìý
In a head-to-head with Bailão, who finished a strong second in the last mayoral race, Chow got more support — 40 per cent to the former councillor’s 34 per cent, with 27 per cent undecided.
“When É«É«À² voters are asked who they would support among the four main candidates, Olivia Chow leads, with John Tory close behind,” said Lorne Bozinoff, Forum Research president.
“However, in direct head-to-head matchups, Tory and Bradford hold a slight advantage over Chow, highlighting a competitive race with no clear front-runner at this stage. With nearly a year to go, voter preferences are still fluid, and the dynamics could shift as the campaign progresses.”
The poll suggests that Chow’s support is strongest with younger voters and those in the old city of É«É«À², East York, Scarborough and York. Almost 70 per cent of Chow’s previous voters said they would back her again.
Tory’s support was strong with middle-aged voters and those in Etobicoke and North York.
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