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Officials from Poland, NATO and the Netherlands acknowledged that four drones were destroyed by F-16 and F-35 jets, flown by Polish and Dutch pilots. One damaged a house near the village of Wyryki-Wola, fortunately without casualties. Tusk made it clear that the incident was a serious violation of Poland’s sovereignty, noting that it was the “closest we have come to open conflict since World War Two.”

Tusk is right. While there have been repeated violations of Polish airspace since the war began, there has been nothing on this scale. Moreover, this marks the first time NATO forces have engaged an enemy over the territory of one of its members.

Poland quickly invoked Article 4 of the NATO treaty, initiating an emergency meeting of its security council. It has also asked for an emergency meeting of the United Nations Security Council, underscoring the gravity of the situation.

, renowned for his waffling on Russia, seemed to understand the seriousness of the moment. On Truth Social, he commented, “What’s with Russia violating Poland’s airspace with drones?” Curtly adding, “Here we go!”

What precisely that means in terms of any response from the United States is a big question.

What’s most telling is the response from Russia. In its official statement, the Russian Foreign Ministry claimed that drone strikes against Ukraine did not include any targets in Poland, bizarrely implying that their 700 km range meant that they couldn’t be what was shot down. Despite what it called the “the obvious inconsistency of Warsaw’s allegations,” Russia declared its willingness to “prevent further escalation” through discussions.

��ܲ�������’s charge d’affaires in Warsaw claimed there was no evidence the drones were of Russian origin and Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed Polish allegations as “nothing new,” indicating Russia would make no further comments.

However, officials in Belarus — ��ܲ�������’s ally in the war — announced that hours before the incident they warned both Poland and Lithuania about drones that had strayed off course due to jamming. The Belarusian chief of general staff even claimed his forces shot some down themselves.

Any confusion here is no accident. Since the disastrous “Alaskan Summit” between Trump and Putin on Aug. 15, Russia has ramped up its war against Ukraine, particularly through aerial attacks. Emboldened by what he interpreted as recognition and respect received from Trump at their meeting, Putin is pushing before — or maybe if ever — Washington comes to a stronger resolve on ending the war.

The fact that the Trump administration has done nothing to push Russia to a ceasefire and negotiations is seen in Moscow as permission to escalate. 

The drones shot down in Poland very likely represent a test, dangerous as it is, to gauge both the military and political responsiveness of NATO. While it’s unlikely that Russia intends any military operations against Poland or NATO — a decision that would, in effect, bring us to a Third World War — it is in keeping with Putin’s playbook to “mess with the West.”

Far from being fabricated by Poland, or even being a case of “lost drones” straying off course, this is a deliberate provocation designed to test the resolve of NATO and the Western allies.