Canada has discovered Mexico, and it’s about time.
The two countries have been significant trading partners for 31 years, since the original North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) took effect, replaced in 2020 by the Canada-U.S.-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).
But Mexico didn’t become top of mind for Canadian government and business leaders until Canada and Mexico each came under attack this year from tariffs imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump.
Canada is now going all-out to strengthen ties with Mexico to maintain a united front against Trump with CUSMA coming under review next year.
But there’s more to the two-amigos rapprochement than that. Canada wants to increase trade with Mexico.
There might soon be a special arrivals lounge at Mexico City’s international airport to handle all the Canadian visitors.
Prime Minister Mark Carney will be in the Mexican capital in mid-September to meet with Claudia Sheinbaum, Mexico’s president.
The two leaders met in June on the sidelines at the G7 summit in Alberta, to which Carney invited Sheinbaum.
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Sheinbaum has since hosted Anita Anand, Canada’s foreign minister, and François-Philippe Champagne, the Canadian finance minister, who met with Sheinbaum earlier this month.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith was in Mexico on a three-day trip starting Aug. 10 to meet with Mexican government officials and business leaders, including representatives of state oil producer Petróleos Mexicanos (Pemex).
And back in January, a delegation of Canadian business leaders under the auspices of the Business Council of Canada visited Sheinbaum in the Mexican capital.
They lent their support to a continued CUSMA, which could be reopened earlier than its scheduled July 2026 renegotiation.
Turns out, the two countries have much to talk about besides Trump.
Discussions so far have covered building more resilient supply chains, developing direct port-to-port trade routes between Canada and Mexico, managing the digital economy, and building conventional and renewable energy infrastructure.
Smith pitched Mexico on greater energy security. Mexico relies on the U.S. for about 70 per cent of its natural gas consumption. With liquified natural gas exports (LNG) from Alberta, Mexico could reduce that reliance.
And Alberta crude oil, newly available with the completion of the Trans Mountain pipeline expansion (TMX), could be refined in Mexico into diesel and aviation fuels.
“There is real momentum in the Canada-Mexico relationship,” Tim Hodgson, Canada’s energy minister, said in a recent post on X. Hodgson has met virtually with his Mexican counterpart, Luz Elena Gonzalez.
Mexico holds considerable promise as one of the alternative markets to the U.S. that Canada is pursuing.
Mexico is the second-largest economy in Latin America after Brazil, and the 15th largest in the world with a GDP of $2.2 trillion.
Canada and Mexico are connected by rail, road, ports, and air routes. And they are signatories to two free trade agreements, CUSMA and the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP).
Yet trade between the two countries is underdeveloped. Mexico is Canada’s third-largest trading partner after the U.S. and China. Mexico exported a little over $29 billion in goods to Canada last year. Canada’s exports to Mexico were almost $9 billion, or just over 1 per cent of total Canadian exports.
It’s no wonder that Anand said she was in Mexico to “kick start” more robust trade with Canada.
But Canada won’t be starting from scratch. Canada accounted for $46 billion in foreign direct investment (FDI) in Mexico last year.
Calgary’s TC Energy Corp. has just completed its $6.2 billion Southeast Gateway natural gas pipeline in southern Mexico in partnership with state-owned electric utility CFE.
The Sheinbaum administration regards Southeast Gateway as a showpiece that proves foreign firms can invest in Mexico and succeed, says TC CEO François Poirier.
Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC), also based in Calgary, operates a large rail network in Mexico. It is generating about $100 million in additional business carrying freight directly from Canada to Mexico across what it calls a “land bridge.”
CPKC hopes to further increase revenue with direct shipments in the opposite direction.
And pension fund Caisse de dépôt et placement du Québec has $9 billion worth of Mexican assets.
Canada has fences to mend with Mexico, after Smith and Ontario Premier Doug Ford said late last year that Mexico was allowing itself to become a back door for Chinese vehicles and auto parts into the U.S.
The two premiers suggested that Canada should consider negotiating a bilateral trade deal with U.S. that would exclude Mexico, a notion that then-prime minister Justin Trudeau refused to rule out.
Nine months later Canada is scrambling to make nice with Mexico.
The challenge with Prime Minister Mark Carney’s goal of building 2.5 million homes within a
The timing is right.
Like Canada, Mexico wants to reduce its trade reliance on the U.S., and it also wants to cut its dependence on China.
Under Sheinbaum’s six-year “Plan México” industrial strategy, Mexico aims to attract about $100 billion (U.S.) in additional annual FDI.
With luck, future contingents of Canadian visitors to Mexico will include as many investors and infrastructure builders as sunworshippers.
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