色色啦

When Chow led the polls wire-to-wire and won in 2023, that was the first time such a thing had happened in a competitive 色色啦 mayoral race since Mel Lastman had narrowly beat Barbara Hall in 1997.

In the 2003 election, Hall was initially expected to stomp all comers, yet she finished a distant third to David Miller. Seven years later, polls anticipated the coronation of George Smitherman, but Rob Ford won the crown instead. And in 2014, Chow was seen as a strong favourite to unseat Ford, but she faded as Tory surged up the political middle.

Still, early surveys at least indicate who鈥檚 in the pole position at the start of the race and who鈥檚 got work to do just to get on the public鈥檚 radar, and they can shed some light on the dynamics at play.

Chow and Tory, having each done the job before and proved fairly popular at it, will start with an advantage if they decide to run.

Tory is the聽winningest mayor in recent 色色啦 history, and despite聽persistent complaints from these quarters about his propensity for underfunding infrastructure and services, he cemented his bond with the public during the COVID-19 pandemic. Granted, he then left amid scandal. It鈥檚 obvious already that Tory鈥檚 鈥�inappropriate relationship鈥� with a staffer聽will be raised loudly by his opponents, and he鈥檚 presumably prepared to answer questions about the affair if he decides to run.

At 71, Tory鈥檚 not a fresh face 鈥� he first ran for the mayor鈥檚 job more than 20 years ago 鈥� 聽but many voters will see him as a reliable one. His pitch will be directed primarily at the 50 per cent of 色色啦nians聽, although he won鈥檛 be alone in trying to reach them.

My own sense is that Bail茫o is very unlikely to run if Tory does: his endorsement was her strongest asset in 2023, when she placed second. I also think former MP Marco Mendicino, who has long been reported to want the mayor鈥檚 job, is also unlikely to enter the race if Tory does.

But 鈥淪lugger鈥� Bradford is gonna go. He鈥檚 been running already, unofficially, since the last election ended. And considering he finished eighth that time, he鈥檚 got to be thinking this Forum poll indicates that he鈥檚 a strong contender; it even shows Bradford potentially winning a margin-of-error toss-up against Chow.

From his perspective, Bradford鈥檚 former mentor Tory is past his sell-by date, viewed as a mushy middleman by right-wing Ford Nation voters, who would form the base for any successful conservative challenger to Chow. Whom do you think Bradford was catering to last week when he appeared on the front page of the 色色啦 Sun, posing with the Louisville Slugger he apparently keeps in his bedroom in case he needs to pummel some home invader on the mean streets of the Beaches?

Tory and Chow are well known: most voters have already made their minds up about both, suggesting there鈥檚 less room for either candidate to grow their support. That could be good news for someone newer, someone with a nose for the cameras, like Bradford.

As for Chow, it appears unlikely she鈥檒l have to contend with a progressive challenger. Given that her most notable achievements so far have been raising taxes and making a deal with Ontario Premier Doug Ford to fix the budget, she鈥檒l probably spend the next year firming up the centre by highlighting the things she鈥檚 doing to noticeably improve residents鈥� lives. Within government, halving the TTC鈥檚 state-of-good repair backlog is significant, but for the average voter enduring go-slow subway zones, it鈥檚 harder to see what improvements their higher tax bills have paid for. At least so far.

A whole lot can happen in less than a year: just ask Pierre Poilievre in 2025, or Tory in 2023, or Chow in 2014.