Ross Atkins began the off-season talking about how his No. 1 priority for the off-season was upgrading the Blue Jays鈥 starting rotation. On Monday afternoon, he found a way to do it.
The Jays have agreed to terms with free agent right-handed starter Chris Bassitt. ESPN鈥檚 Jeff Passan was the first to report the three-year deal worth $63 million (U.S.), which has since been confirmed by The Star. The signing is pending a physical and has yet to be officially announced.
Bassitt arguably was the fourth or fifth best starter available on the open market behind Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon and possibly Japanese right-hander Kodai Senga. He is a proven mid-rotation arm who hasn鈥檛 posted an ERA above 3.81 since returning from Tommy John surgery prior to 2018.
The 33-year-old isn鈥檛 flashy, but he has been extremely reliable throughout most of his career. Last season, he averaged 93 m.p.h. on his four-seam fastball while complementing it with a sinker-slider combo that has resulted in 8.3 strikeouts per nine innings across parts of eight seasons.
After a slow start to his career, Bassitt has been taking on bigger workloads in recent years as well. He completed at least seven innings in 20 starts over the last two seasons and in 2022 he finished with a career high 181 2/3 frames. Of his 30 outings with the Mets, all but seven lasted six or more innings.
Much has been made of the skyrocketing prices for free agents in this year鈥檚 market. A lot of players have been exceeding off-season projections, but Bassitt鈥檚 deal falls in line with what had been expected. In November, MLBTradeRumors predicted a three-year contract worth $60 million for Bassitt.
Bassitt鈥檚 $21-million average annual salary is the third-highest for a free-agent starter this off-season behind Verlander and deGrom. It likely will be exceeded by Rodon, who remains a free agent and is rumoured to be seeking a seven-year contract. Bassitt鈥檚 price tag might seem expensive for a No. 3 or No. 4 starter but that鈥檚 the cost of doing business in today鈥檚 marketplace.
The unknown is how Bassitt鈥檚 salary will impact the rest of the Jays鈥 off-season. According to FanGraphs鈥橰oster Resource, the Jays currently have a competitive balance tax payroll of approximately $225 million and that doesn鈥檛 include the recent signing of Kevin Kiermaier. The threshold for 2023 has been set at $233 million.
Whether the Jays have enough money left to make another big signing for their outfield depends on their willingness to pay luxury tax. During last week鈥檚 winter meetings, president Mark Shapiro said it would not be an 鈥渙bstacle,鈥 nor would it be something he budgeted around.
Bassitt represents a substantial upgrade over former No. 4 starter Ross Stripling, who currently is a free agent. Stripling exceeded expectations last season with a 3.01 ERA but his 134 1/3 innings were a career high, and he has yet to be a starter for a full season. Bringing him back in a similar role next year would have been a huge gamble.
Bassitt has a better foundation with a 3.31 ERA over his last 546 innings while limiting opponents to a slash line of .228/.292/.367. He keeps the ball on the ground approximately 44.3 per cent of the time and has received Cy Young votes in two of the last three seasons.
The Jays can again claim to have one of the top rotations in the majors. Alek Manoah and Kevin Gausman form what should be an effective top two while the Jays are hoping for a bounceback season from Jos茅 Berr铆os after his disappointing 5.23 ERA in 2022. That leaves Yusei Kikuchi and Mitch White to battle it out for the final starting job.
If the Jays keep their starters healthy for most of the season, they shouldn鈥檛 have any issues filling innings. Manoah was ninth in the majors with 196 2/3 innings in 2022, Bassitt was tied for 22nd at 181 2/3, Gausman was tied for 36th at 174 2/3 and, despite his underwhelming numbers, Berr铆os finished tied for 38th at 172.
That should make things easier on a bullpen that was overworked for much of last season because of the Jays鈥 inability to field five competent starters following injuries to Stripling and Hyun-Jin Ryu. The bullpen has since gotten better with the addition of Erik Swanson, but the relievers still aren鈥檛 a strength and having a strong starting staff will help limit the number of times they get exposed.
Bassitt declined a qualifying offer from the Mets earlier this off-season, which means the Jays will forfeit their second-highest pick of the 2023 draft as well as $500,000 from the international bonus pool. Luxury taxpayers would have been forced to part with their second- and fifth-highest selections along with $1 million of the bonus pool.
The cost to upgrade the rotation wasn鈥檛 cheap but it was a price worth paying. The three-year term also lines up perfectly for the Jays because Bassitt will be coming off the books at the same time Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette are due huge raises in free agency.
While Verlander might have been the dream scenario, Bassitt is a solid consolation prize for a team with World Series aspirations. He raises the ceiling and the floor for a rotation that needs to be much better next season if the Jays intend on living up to the hype.
The Jays could still use another bat and possibly another arm for the bullpen, but they look set in the rotation. The off-season of disappointment is no more, Atkins and the Jays are back in business.
Now go find that missing bat.
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